Forex Daily Commentary

The most important economic events for the day are concentrated around GMT13:30 – the U.S. non-farm payrolls (185K exp., 74K prev.) and the U.S. unemployment (6.7% exp., 6.7 prev.).

EUR/USD – the yesterday’s lack of more easing on behalf of the ECB lead to a rise of the euro for the day. Today the dollar seems to be gaining strength again. Currently the pair trades around $1.356 after going to as high as $1.3618 yesterday. Technically the direction is still negative on the daily graph where the MACD is in the negative area and the pair did not manage to go steady beyond the 30 moving average.

AUD/USD – the bullish movement seems to be a bit exhausted for the moment. On the 4h graph (see below) there is a bearish formation which could lead to a temporary stop of the increase similarly to the situation in AUD/NZD. Both currency pairs still look positive on the daily graphs though.

audusd audnzd 4 hour bearish divergence

AudUsd AudNzd 4 hour bearish divergence, FXCM trading platform

EUR/CHF – the pair tried to advance but was stopped close to the 38.2 Fibo retracement level. Still negative on the daily. A possibility for a bullish divergence on the weekly graph but we’ll have to see if it is confirmed during the next several days.

USDJPY daily

FOREX: USD/JPY Possible Downtrend?

Possible short-term downtrend in USD/JPY?
Bearsih MACD divergence on the daily graph – a warning sing for the bulls.
The trend might have started on Friday with the U.S. nonrafm payrolls.

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EUR/USD Triple Bearish MACD Divergence

Triple bearish MACD divergence on the 4H graph. Daily still positive MACD histogram. Weekly – the EUR/USD exchange rate looks a bit extended with the MACD histogram negative and growing, and the price continues to make new highs.

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EURUSD: A retracement pullback? #technicalanalysis

This is a technical analysis (as of GMT 16:30 on Monday) of the recent EURUSD exchange rate movement.

Last week the EURUSD exchange rate finished with a pullback to the $1.3340/50 area, after going close to $1.34 on Thursday. This was in line with our view that a certain pullback could be expected based on the bearish MACD and Stochastic divergences on the EURUSD daily graph. On Monday the decline of the euro continued to the $1.3270/80 area. Since then the euro has gained strength against the U.S. dollar and currently trades around $1.3305.

EURUSD 1H GraphEURUSD 1H Graph

As we could see on the 1H graph (presented on the left), this is exactly the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from $1.3399 to $1.3277. Besides that retracement level which could act as some sort of resistance, the interesting things which could be seen here are the bullish MACD and Stochastic divergences, together with the fact that the euro is still not in the overbought zone, according to that graph. Hence, an increase of the value of the euro against the U.S. dollar in short term, if the $1.3300/05 level holds, would not be a big surprise.

EURUSD 4H GraphEURUSD 4H Graph

On the 4H graph we see that the EURUSD rate still seems to have more room to go down (the negative MACD being one of the signs) so any increase of the euro could be regarded as a short-lived one, at least until it is not confirmed by a positive formation on the 4 hour graph. A possible target for such an increase could be the 32.8 Fibonacci level around the $1.3320/05 level.

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This article is not an investment recommendation (personalized or general), it is not an investment advice, it is not and should not be used as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or in any other way trade any securities or other financial instruments, and constitutes no contract between the author and the readers or publishers of the article. It is an expression of an analytical and educational point of view and should be regarded as a research material. Investors, traders and readers are encouraged to consult a professional on their investment intentions and their particular situation. For more information, please read our Disclaimer.